Cowboys Playoff Chances June 2023: Tracking the Cowboys Playoff Picture

Fact Checked by Blake Weishaar
Cowboys Playoff Chances

Key Takeaways:

  • The Cowboys playoff chances are 64.3%, which is among the best in the NFC.
  • The Cowboys have a 39.2% chance to miss the playoffs, which is also among the best in the NFC.
  • Based on the latest odds, Dallas has a 6.7% chance to win the Super Bowl this season.

The Dallas Cowboys went 12-5 for the second consecutive season under Mike McCarthy and got their first road playoff win in two decades. They overcame a Dak Prescott injury that caused him to miss a significant chunk of the season. However, they ultimately fell short of their goal, losing to the 49ers again in the playoffs. 

Can they finally get over the hump in 2023 and return to the Super Bowl for the first time since 1995? The Cowboys Super Bowl odds certainly suggest that it's a real possibility. Below, we break down the Cowboys' playoff picture every day for the upcoming season.

What Are the Cowboys Playoff Chances?

After making some great under-the-radar moves this offseason, the Cowboys playoff chances are 65.5%. In the below table, I've broken down Dallas' chances to make the postseason and provided more data for further context on Dak Prescott and the Cowboys' outlook this season:

⭐ Cowboys Playoff Chances64.3% Chance
β›” Cowboys Miss Playoffs39.2% Chance
πŸ‘‘ Cowboys Win Super Bowl6.7% Chance
πŸ† Cowboys Win NFC14.3% Chance
πŸ”₯ Cowboys Win NFC East36.4% Chance
πŸ—½ New York Times Postseason SimulatorNot Available Yet
🏈 ESPN Football Power Index (FPI)3.0 FPI
βœ… Data Last Verified by ExpertJune 2, 2023

I calculated the Cowboys' playoff picture by converting their odds to make the postseason into an implied probability. These odds should be available at all of the top Texas sportsbooks

But the odds I used were pulled from DraftKings Texas Sportsbook, turning Dallas' -180 odds to make the playoffs into that 65.5% chance.  

Of course, bookmakers have also set odds on Dallas to miss the playoffs. The Cowboys are available at +155 to miss the postseason, giving them a 39.2% chance to be on the outside looking in come playoff time. 

I've also included the data from other credible media sources, like this year's ESPN’s Football Power Index, which adjusts the ranking of a team based of quality wins, strength of schedule, point differential, etc. Plus, I'll be pulling data from the New York Times Postseason Simulator once that is live. 

Cowboys Postseason Picture: Key Updates June 2023

Here's what Cowboys fans need to know about the team's offseason thus far:

  • πŸ“† April 29, 2023: The Cowboys were generally regarded as having a solid, if unspectacular, NFL Draft. The big-name additions were: Mazi Smith, DT, Michigan (Round 1), Luke Schoonmaker, TE, Michigan (Round 2), and DeMarvion Overshown, LB, Texas (Round 3). 
  • πŸ“† April 6, 2023: Cowboys bring in a host of skill-position players for pre-draft visits, including wide receivers like Zay Flowers, Jalin Hyatt, and Quentin Johnston, and tight end Darnell Washington.
  • πŸ“† March 29, 2023: Jonathan Hankins re-signed a one-year deal with the Cowboys.
  • πŸ“† March 19, 2023: Dallas trades a 2023 fifth-round pick and a 2024 sixth-round pick for wide receiver Brandin Cooks.
  • πŸ“† March 16, 2023: Cowboys re-sign backup QB Cooper Rush to a two-year deal worth $6 million.
  • πŸ“† March 15, 2023: Cowboys release RB Ezekiel Elliott via post-June 1 cut designation
  • πŸ“† March 14, 2023: Cowboys re-sign LB Leighton Vander Esch to a two-year deal worth $8 million.
  • πŸ“† March 14, 2023: Cowboys trade 2023 fifth-round pick for former Pro Bowl CB Stephon Gilmore.
  • πŸ“† March 14, 2023: Cowboys re-sign SS Donovan Wilson on a three-year deal worth $24 million.
  • πŸ“† March 13, 2023: Starting left guard Connor McGovern signs a three-year deal with Buffalo Bills.
  • πŸ“† March 6, 2023: Cowboys placed franchise tag on Pro Bowl RB Tony Pollard.
  • πŸ“† January 29, 2023: Dallas announces that Kellen Moore will not return as the Cowboys' offensive coordinator.

With the NFL Draft around the corner (starting April 27), more developments are on the horizon for Dallas this offseason. Keep this page bookmarked, as I'll be updating it in real time as we move toward September. 

Where Can I Bet on the Cowboys to Make the Playoffs?

You can bet on the Cowboys to make the playoffs at Caesars Sportsbook Texas. If you're looking to wager against Dallas, you can also place a futures bet on them to miss the postseason. 

As arguably the most popular team in the country, all the top Texas betting apps should be offering Cowboys futures bets in the not-too-distant future. 

Looking Ahead: Cowboys Playoff Picture

The playoff picture for the Dallas Cowboys looks great right now, especially considering the state of the NFC. With so many teams having massive question marks at quarterback, the Cowboys should be able to put together another 10-win season. 

The Cowboys were able to retain most of their roster in free agency, bringing back veterans such as Donovan Wilson, Leighton Vander Esch, and Tony Pollard. They even added former All-Pro cornerback Stephon Gilmore to pair with Trevon Diggs. They did lose Ezekiel Elliott (release), but that means more work for Pollard out of the backfield. 

The best news the Cowboys got this offseason was that defensive coordinator Dan Quinn would return for his third season with the team. Quinn is widely viewed as one of the league's top defensive coordinators, and the Cowboys have been dominant on defense with him. Their defense alone should allow them to win a bunch of games this season. 

If the Cowboys can stay reasonably healthy, they should be a near-lock to make the playoffs again this year. And if the Eagles take a step backward, they could even win the NFC East and host (several) playoff games. 

Do the Cowboys Have a Chance to Make the Playoffs?

Yes. The Cowboys have an excellent chance of making the playoffs during the 2023 NFL season. They are widely viewed as one of the top teams in the conference, just behind the Philadelphia Eagles and the San Francisco 49ers. The Cowboys have made the playoffs in the last two seasons and have the second-most wins (behind the Chiefs) since the start of the 2021 season. 

Dak Prescott is the longest-tenured quarterback in the NFC, and whenever he’s been on the field, the Cowboys have had one of the top-ranked offenses in the league. Plus, they have an elite defense led by Dan Quinn and Micah Parsons. The only real concern for the Cowboys in the NFC is their division, as the Eagles and Giants both made the playoffs last season. But the Cowboys have an excellent chance of making the playoffs again in 2023.

If you plan on betting the Cowboys to make the playoffs, be check out the best Texas sportsbook promos to potentially juice the odds or payout in your favor. 

Are the Cowboys Out of the Playoffs?

No, the Cowboys are not out of the playoffs because the season hasn’t started. Bookmakers are confident that the Cowboys will return to the playoffs again during the 2023 season, as they have one of the best overall rosters in the NFC. 

They still need to nail the draft and add more veteran free agents to improve the roster, but the Cowboys should be back in the playoffs next season if they stay healthy. 

Cowboys NFL Futures FAQ


Marcus Mosher covers the NFL, NFL Draft and NFL news for The host of the Locked On Cowboys podcast, Marcus also has been the managing editor of The Raiders Wire and contributor to The Athletic DFW, Pro Football Weekly, FanSided and FanRag Sports.

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