Dallas Cowboys Playoff Picture

Fact Checked by Jeremy Botter
Cowboys Playoff Chances

Key Takeaways:

  • 📊 The Cowboys clinched a playoff spot in Week 15.
  • 📈 Dallas is the No. 2 seed in the NFC Playoffs after winning the NFC East.
  • ⭐️ The Cowboys are 7-point favorites in their opening playoff matchup against the Packers.

The Dallas Cowboys have officially made the postseason for the third straight season under Mike McCarthy and clinched the NFC East division title thanks to their Week 18 win over the Commanders. The question now is how far can the Cowboys make it in the playoffs?

I'll be tracking the Dallas Cowboys playoff picture and odds each week, so be sure to bookmark this page to stay up to date with the latest news impacting the Cowboys' playoff odds.

What Are the Cowboys Playoff Chances?

With the Cowboys’ playoff chances locked in at 100%, fans can look to other postseason betting markets to see how the team is being viewed among oddsmakers.

Here are more of their odds and data points as they relate to the Cowboys' playoff picture, courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook Texas:

🏆 Cowboys Playoff Chances100%
📊 Cowboys Beat The Packers76.5%
👑 Cowboys Win NFC23.8% Chance
🏆 Cowboys Win Super Bowl11.8% Chance
🏈 ESPN Football Power Index (FPI)9.3 FPI (3rd)
✅ Data Last Verified by ExpertApril 10, 2024

The percentages above are derived from converting the Cowboys' betting odds for each market into an implied probability. For Dallas' chances to win their Super Wild Card matchup against Green Bay, those chances were converted from the Cowboys' moneyline odds as of Friday, January 12. Dallas has -325 moneyline odds against the Packers and heads into the weekend as 7-point home favorites.

Thanks to uncertainty in the NFC behind the 49ers and the Eagles trending down over the past several weeks, that has allowed positive movement up odds boards for both the Cowboys' NFC chances and Super Bowl chances. Compared to last week, Dallas' NFC chances went from 10.3% to 11.8% and their Super Bowl chances went from 10.5% to 11.8%.

 

Dallas Cowboys Week-by-Week Playoff Chances

Each week, we will update the Cowboys playoff chances after the results of the game. This will allow us to see how their postseason chances are fluctuating as the season progresses.

WeekCowboys' Playoff Chances
Week 1             69.7%
Week 280.94%
Week 390.91%
Week 488.9%
Week 582.6%
Week 677.8%
Week 784.6%
Week 888.2%
Week 995.2%
Week 1095.2%
Week 1197.6%
Week 1297.6%
Week 1399.5%
Week 14>99% (NYT)
Week 15>99% (NYT)
Week 16100%
Week 17100%
Week 18100%

The Cowboys locked in a third-straight playoff berth after clinching a spot in the postseason in Week 15. No matter what happens the rest of the year, Dallas will be heading to the playoffs with the Lombardi in mind.

Who are the Cowboys Playing in the Playoffs?

Dallas will face off against the Green Bay Packers in the opening round of the playoffs, dubbed "Super Wild Card Weekend". Not only is there a history between these two storied franchises as this will be the ninth playoff matchup between the two, but there is the additional storyline involving head coach Mike McCarthy. 

McCarthy was the head coach for the Packers for nearly 13 seasons and was the coach for the infamous "Dez caught it" game in 2015. If that wasn't bad enough, Aaron Rodgers delivered a dagger to the hearts of Cowboys' fans two years later when he completed a 36-yard pass with less than 15 seconds left, setting up the go-ahead 51-yard field goal.

Cowboys vs. Packers Betting Odds

Here are the betting lines for the Packers @ Cowboys playoff game as of Friday, January 12, per DraftKings Sportsbook:

  • Cowboys/Packers Spread: Cowboys -7
  • Cowboys/Packers Moneyline: Dallas -325, Green Bay +260
  • Cowboys/Packers Total: Over 50.5 (-112), Under 50.5 (-108)

Are the Cowboys in the Playoffs?

Yes. The Dallas Cowboys have clinched a postseason spot for the third straight year. Dallas earned a spot in the playoffs after the Vikings, Packers, and Falcons all lost in Week 15. While it looked like the Cowboys were destined for a Wild Card spot a few weeks ago, the Eagles absolutely collapsed down the stretch and Dallas was able to secure the NFC East. This gave the Cowboys the No. 2 seed in the playoffs and means they will play all of their games at home outside of a matchup with the 49ers if it comes to that.

Cowboys Playoff Picture: Key Updates April 2024

Here are the most important and relevant bits of information regarding the Dallas Cowboys' playoff picture:

  • 📅 January 7, 2024: With their win over Washington, the Cowboys clinched the NFC East and the No. 2 seed in the NFC.
  • 📅 January 5, 2024: Heading into the weekend, the Cowboys are 13-point road favorites against the Washington Commanders.
  • 📅 December 17: Thanks to losses by the Vikings, Packers, and Falcons, the Cowboys clinched a playoff berth before their game against Buffalo even started.
  • 📅 December 10: Dallas gets a huge win over Philadelphia, taking control of the NFC East and with it, the No. 2 seed in the NFC playoff race.
  • 📅 December 3: The Cowboys designate TE Peyton Hendershot eligible to return from IR.
  • 📅 December 3: The gap between the Cowboys and Eagles in the NFC East has closed thanks to the 49ers going into Philadelphia and coming out with a win.
  • 📅 November 30: Dallas wins a thriller Thursday Night Football game against the Seahawks, 41-35.
  • 📅 November 19: Despite Dallas' second-straight blowout victory, the Cowboys' division odds and Super Bowl odds drop due to the Eagles picking up a key victory on the road at Kansas City. 
  • 📅 October 16: The Cowboys have placed LB Leighton Vander Esch (neck) and CB C.J. Goodwin (pectoral) on the injured reserve list
  • 📅 September 24: The Cowboys have placed CB Trevon Diggs (torn ACL) on the injured reserve list

Be sure to bookmark this page and check back for all of the latest news and developments regarding the Dallas Cowboys and their chances of making the playoffs again in 2023.

Key Contributors Towards Cowboys Playoff Chances

If the Dallas Cowboys are going to make a deep playoff run, their chances of doing so fall squarely on the shoulders of quarterback Dak Prescott. While the defense has performed well throughout the year, they've been pretty inconsistent as a whole. If Prescott and the offense are unable to convert third downs and sustain drives, it's going to put too much pressure on the defense. Asking them to dominate multiple games isn't feasible.

Luckily for the Cowboys and their fans, Prescott has been playing some of the best football of his career which has led to CeeDee Lamb putting up the best numbers of his career. He's undoubtedly the most important skill player for Dallas and both Prescott and Lamb will need to continue to play at a high level. With teams certainly scheming to limit Lamb, the team will need secondary receiving pieces to step up and make plays, including Jake Ferguson and Brandin Cooks. The offense could get a huge boost from running back Tony Pollard if he's able to regain even a percentage of the burst he's had over the past few seasons. 

Where Can I Bet on the Cowboys to Make the Playoffs?

You can bet on the Cowboys to make the playoffs at most major sportsbooks in the United States. Sports betting in Texas isn't legal, but if you travel to a state where it is legal, you can bet on the Dallas Cowboys on any of the top sportsbook apps, including BetMGM, Caesars, FanDuel, DraftKings, etc. 

Unfortunately for sports fans, Texas sports betting won't be here until at least 2025 when the state legislature meets next. There was positive momentum in 2023 but it ultimately fell short. Once Texas sportsbook apps are here, however, Cowboys fans will have a full menu of betting options available in the palm of their hand.

Dallas Cowboys Playoff Picture and Predictions

The Dallas Cowboys are one of the best teams in the NFL and have already punched their ticket to the 2023-2024 postseason. The Cowboys sit at 11-5 through the first 16 games of the season and now the only thing to be determined is where they fall in the seeding. As long as Dallas can take care of business against the Commanders, the Cowboys will lock up the NFC East and with it the No. 2 seed. This means Dallas gets to stay at home, where they're undefeated this season. This also means they'll match up against the No. 7 seed which could be any of the Rams, Packers, Seahawks, Vikings, or Saints.

There's no reason to think that the Cowboys aren't positioned to make a deep playoff run. The question of how far they can go comes down to whether Prescott and the offense continue operating at a high level and if the defense comes up with enough stops.

Cowboys Playoff Chances FAQs

Author

Cody Kutzer has been covering the sports betting and gambling space for several years and has been losing his parlay bets for even longer. He currently serves as an editor and fact-checker for BetTexas.com to ensure readers have the latest and most accurate information surrounding what's happening in Texas sports betting.

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