Houston Texans Playoff Chances Week 3: Tracking the Texans Playoff Picture

Fact Checked by Jeremy Botter
Can CJ Stroud make an impact on the Texans playoff chances

Key Takeaways:

  • πŸ“Š The Texans' playoff chances are 8.3%, the lowest in the AFC and second lowest in all of football.
  • πŸ† The Texans have a 7.1% chance to win the division, also the lowest in the AFC South.
  • ⭐️ Based on the latest odds, the Houston Texans have a 0.2% chance to win the Super Bowl in 2024.

The Houston Texans rebuild is underway under new head coach DeMeco Ryans. Despite not winning a game yet, the Texans have plenty of young and important pieces to start building around highlighted by their quarterback C.J. Stroud, and defensive end Will Anderson.

C.J. Stroud is fourth in the NFL in passing in the early start of the season. The rookie quarterback has showcased poise and accuracy plus the ability to create plays on the run. Will Anderson had a rough week two, but his talent has been evident from the start of the season.

The odds are not kind to the Texans, and shouldn't be with the expectations and results through the early part of the season. Let's take a look at the odds for the Texans in the 2023 season.

What are the Texans Playoff Chances?

Following back-to-back losses to start the season, the Texans' playoff chances are 8.3%. In the table below, I've listed Houston's chances to make the postseason, as well as some other relevant data for added context.

⭐ Texans Playoff Chances8.3% Chance
❌ Texans Miss Playoffs96.2% Chance
πŸ† Texans Win Super Bowl0.2% Chance
πŸ‘‘ Texans Win AFC0.7% Chance
πŸ”₯ Cowboys Win AFC South7.1% Chance
πŸ—½ New York Times Postseason SimulatorNot Available Yet
🏈 ESPN Football Power Index (FPI)-6.1 FPI (31st)
βœ… Data Last Verified by ExpertSeptember 20, 2023

The implied probability of the Texans making the playoffs is calculated by using the team's odds to make the postseason. DraftKings Sportsbook, among one of the most used sportsbooks in the United States, is the location of the odds for this chart.

The 0.2% chance to win the Super Bowl for the Texans is the worst in football. The 0.7% chance for Houston to win the AFC is the worst in the conference. The expectation is the Houston Texans will finish with one of the worst records in the NFL.

We also track the Football Power Index or FPI of the team as well which is a creation of ESPN. When the New York Times Postseason Simulator is updated we will also track those results.

Texans Week-by-Week Playoff Chances

The chart below will track the Texans' playoff chances each week as the team progresses through the season. This will allow us to see how the results from the previous week impact Houston's postseason hopes.

WeekTexans' Playoff Chances
Week 1       16.7%
Week 214.3%
Week 38.3%

The big change occurs as the Texans have lost two straight, including one to a divisional opponent in the Indianapolis Colts. The Texans are one of nine winless teams in the NFL through the two weeks of play in the 2023 season.

The Texans started the season with low odds to make the playoffs, and those chances become even more slim with each loss.

Texans Schedule and Betting Lines

πŸ“… Week 1 @ Baltimore (L, 25-9)🏈 Texans +9.5, ML +375
πŸ“… Week 2 vs. Indianapolis Colts🏈 Texans -1.5, ML -120
πŸ“… Week 3 @ Jacksonville Jaguars🏈 Texans +9.5, ML +320
πŸ“… Week 4 vs. Pittsburgh Steelers🏈 Texans +4.5, ML +164
πŸ“… Week 5 @ Atlanta Falcons🏈 Texans +3.5, ML +145
πŸ“… Week 6 vs. New Orleans Saints🏈 Texans +3, ML +124
πŸ“… Week 7🏈 BYE
πŸ“… Week 8 @ Carolina Panthers🏈 Texans +3, ML +124
πŸ“… Week 9 vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers🏈 Texans -1, ML -115
πŸ“… Week 10 @ Cincinnati Bengals🏈 Texans +9.5, ML +310
πŸ“… Week 11 vs. Arizona Cardinals🏈 Texans -2.5, ML -142
πŸ“… Week 12 vs. Jacksonville Jaguars🏈 Texans +4.5, ML +164
πŸ“… Week 13 vs. Denver Broncos🏈 Texans +4, ML +150
πŸ“… Week 14 @ New York Jets🏈 Texans -8.5, ML +285
πŸ“… Week 15 @ Tennessee Titans🏈 Texans +3, ML +124
πŸ“… Week 16 vs. Cleveland Browns🏈 Texans +4, ML +160
πŸ“… Week 17 vs. Tennessee Titans🏈 Texans +1, ML -105
πŸ“… Week 18 @ Indianapolis Colts🏈 Texans +1.5, ML +102
βœ… Data Last Verified by ExpertSeptember 20, 2023

The Texans have yet another showdown with a division foe as they head to Jacksonville to take on the Jaguars. The Jaguars won last year's AFC South crown and are 1-1 this season so far. Trevor Lawrence and Calvin Ridley present a tough task for the defense of the Texans. Houston has actually won five straight times in Jacksonville.

The Texans desperately need to figure out their offensive line situation in Jacksonville as one of the most fearsome defenses in the AFC awaits the following week when the Pittsburgh Steelers come to town.

Houston Texans Playoff Chances: Key Updates September 2023

To keep Texans fans updated on the season, here is all of the latest news and developments regarding the Houston Texans from the 2023 season:

  • πŸ“† September 17: Left tackle Laremy Tunsil missed the game against the Colts due to a knee injury. He is day-to-day
  • πŸ“† September 17: The Texans ruled out safeties Jalen Pitre (chest) and Jimmie Ward (hip) from the Colts game. The two safeties are day-to-day with their injuries.
  • πŸ“† September 10: Texans safety Jalen Pitre leaves the game in Baltimore to head to the hospital to be treated for a bruised lung.
  • πŸ“† September 06: Texans place tackle Tytus Howard on the injured reserve. Howard will miss at least the first four games.
  • πŸ“† August 31: Texans place punter Cam Johnston on the injured reserve.
  • πŸ“† August 31: Texans place center Jucie Scruggs on the injured reserve.
  • πŸ“† August 29: Texans acquired guard/center Kendrick Green in a trade with the Steelers.
  • πŸ“† August 25: Texans place guard Kenyon Green on the injured reserve ending his season.
  • πŸ“† August 31: Texans acquired tackle/guard Josh Jones in a trade with the Cardinals.
  • πŸ“† July 28: Texans sign free agent tackle George Fant to a one-year deal.
  • πŸ“† July 26: Texans sign tackle Tytus Howard to a three-year contract extension.

We will continue to update this page all season, so be sure to bookmark it and return to see all of the latest updates regarding the Houston Texans.

Key Contributors Toward Texans Playoff Chances

The Houston Texans have a team full of new players that they will rely on to lead them through the 2023 season. C.J. Stroud is the team's rookie quarterback and is poised to be the starter in the 2023 season. The former Ohio State quarterback is accurate and has grown a lot even in his short time in the NFL. He should pair well with young first-time offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik to help improve one of the worst offenses in football from the past two seasons.

Stroud's fellow rookie Will Anderson is someone who demands attention from opposing offenses. The rookie defensive end already has a sack this season as he got to Lamar Jackson in week one. He also has created the most pressure for a rookie in their debut over the past four seasons.

Veteran wideout Robert Woods will be a clear option in this offense. The free agent acquisition just gets open. His ability to go over the middle and get tough yards will pair well with Nico Collins who has the ability to get deep in this offense. Rookie wide receiver Tank Dell is someone to watch in the passing game as well. 

Where Can I Bet on the Houston Texans to Make the Playoffs?

You can bet on the Houston Texans to make the playoffs at any legal sportsbook. Options include DraftKings Sportsbook, BetMGM Sportsbook, Caesars Sportsbook, or FanDuel Sportsbook. Bets can also be made on the Texans to miss the playoffs, win the AFC South, and several other futures at other popular sportsbooks. 

It’s important to note that sports betting isn’t legalized yet in Texas. Bettors will need to travel out of state in order to place a legal sports bet on the Houston Texans' playoff chances during the 2023 season.

Looking Ahead: Texans Playoff Picture

The Houston Texans need to get things going sooner rather than later to remain in the playoff picture. Outside of the wins and losses, the Texans need to figure out how to best help the offensive line. Through two games the team has played four backups along the offensive line and have allowed the most sacks so far.

The prowess of rookie quarterback C.J. Stroud can only overcome so much. The rest of the offense, specifically the rushing attack, must improve. The defense played poorly in week two as well and must right the ship.

While the season is still young, the Texans can keep their hopes of an appearance in the AFC playoffs by winning the division or a wild card spot. As the season progresses, only success will keep them alive for both ways to make the playoffs.

New head coach DeMeco Ryans and his rookie quarterback have a lot to do if the Texans want to find themselves in the thick of things in a loaded AFC.

Do the Texans Have a Chance to Make the Playoffs?

Yes. The Houston Texans can make the playoffs. The Texans have not been eliminated from playoff contention despite their winless record. They are just one game back from the AFC South-leading Jaguars.

Are the Texans Out of Playoffs?

No. The Houston Texans are still capable of making the playoffs. The Texans can still make the playoffs this season despite their winless record through two weeks. Their chances of making the playoffs are currently 8.3% which is among the worst in the NFL.

Where Do the Texans Rank in the AFC South?

The Houston Texans own the worst odds to win their division among the AFC South teams. Their odds are +1300 which equals implied odds of 7.1% for the Texans to win the AFC South.

The favorites to win the AFC South are still the Jacksonville Jaguars, who the Texans play this weekend. Jacksonville won the division last season.

The Tennesse Titans are behind Jacksonville at +240 after their 1-1 start to the season. The Indianapolis Colts have the third-best odds in the division at +700.

The matchup with the Jaguars this weekend for the Texans could go a long way in determining the AFC South pecking order should there be a close race for the division crown.

Where Do the Texans Rank in the AFC Playoff Standings?

The Houston Texans are the least likely team to make the playoffs in the AFC. Their 0-2 start has led to a 96.2% chance via implied odds that they would miss the playoffs. They only trail the rest of the division by one game currently, but that will change heavily based on the results of this weekend's games.

Where Do the Texans Rank in the AFC Wild-Card Race?

The Houston Texans would not be a playoff team via the wild card if the season ended today. Houston is one of five winless teams in the AFC.

Can the Texans Get the No. 1 Seed?

The 2023 Texans are two games behind the undefeated Miami Dolphins and Baltimore Ravens for the top seed in the AFC. The Texans would need to win a vast majority of their games and finish with a record better than Baltimore since they already lost to the Ravens.

Who to Root for if You’re a Texans Fan

Fans of the Houston Texans should root for teams playing against the Jacksonville Jaguars, Indianapolis Colts, and Tennessee Titans each week. Houston fans should also root against anyone playing the Cleveland Browns as the Texans own the 2024 first-round pick of the Browns.

Texans Postseason Outlook and Predictions

The Houston Texans need to start winning to make the postseason. A loss in week two to the Colts gave them a divisional loss to overcome as well. The Texans are led by first-year head coach DeMeco Ryans and rookie quarterback C.J. Stroud. Each has shown glimpses of talent to get fans of the Texans excited, but Stroud has really impressed.

The rookie quarterback needs some help though. The offensive line situation must improve for the Texans and they have to run the football better to take some pressure off of Stroud. On defense, Ryans must coach his defense up better to prepare for the tough offenses the Texans are set to face.

With it being early in the season, wins can drastically change the current playoff look. The Texans though can't afford to create a big hole for themselves. They don't seem to possess the talent to climb out of said hole.

Houston Texans Playoffs FAQs


Cody Stoots is the owner of Houston Football covering the Houston Texans daily on his site and on YouTube. He previously worked in radio for SportsRadio 610 and ESPN 97.5 covering the Texans and Houston sports. He is a proud graduate of Texas Tech and a Heisman Trophy voter.

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