Houston Texans Playoff Picture: Tracking the Texans Playoff Odds

Fact Checked by Jeremy Botter
Can CJ Stroud make an impact on the Texans playoff chances

Key Takeaways:

  • πŸ“Š The Texans are headed to the playoffs for the first time since the 2019-2020 season.
  • πŸ† Thanks to the Jaguars loss to the Titans, the Texans clinched the AFC South.
  • πŸ‘€ Houston will travel to Baltimore to face the Ravens on Saturday, January 20 with kickoff at 4:30.

The Texans were one of the most surprising teams throughout the regular season and their performance carried into the playoffs with a resounding 45-14 win over the Cleveland Browns. Houston will have a tough task on their hands in their second playoff matchup as they will head to Baltimore to take on the Ravens who are the No. 1 seed in the AFC.

I'll be tracking and updating the Texans' playoff odds throughout the postseason, so bookmark this page and check back to keep up with the latest info.

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What are the Latest Texans Playoff Chances?

The Texans have officially clinched a playoff berth so it's time to look at some other betting markets to get a sense of how oddsmakers are viewing Houston's postseason chances.

⭐ Texans Chances to Win vs Ravens23.2%
πŸ‘‘ Texans Win AFC8.3% Chance
πŸ† Texans Win Super Bowl3.9% Chance
🏈 ESPN Football Power Index (FPI)-0.3 FPI (16th)
βœ… Data Last Verified by ExpertJune 20, 2024

The above percentages for the Houston Texans are calculated using implied probability. The implied probability is determined by converting a team's odds into a percentage. For this table, all of the odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook. Specifically for the Texans' chances to win versus the Ravens, I used Houston's moneyline odds (+330) as of Wednesday, January 16.

Houston's chances to win the AFC are at the highest point they've been this season, which shouldn't come as a surprise considering they're just one of four teams that even have a chance at this point. Despite the increase, the Texans have by far the longest AFC Championship odds. Similarly, the Texans' Super Bowl chances are the longest in the league, tied with Tampa Bay and Green Bay.

Texans Week-by-Week Playoff Chances

The chart below will track the Texans' playoff chances each week as the team progresses through the season. This will allow us to see how the results from the previous week impact Houston's postseason hopes.

WeekTexans' Playoff Chances
Week 1       16.7%
Week 214.3%
Week 38.3%
Week 412.5%
Week 533.3%
Week 626.3%
Week 741.7%
Week 838.5%
Week 926%
Week 1028.6%
Week 1148.8%
Week 1264.9%
Week 1352.4%
Week 1480% (NYT)
Week 1544.4%
Week 1655%
Week 1743.9%
Week 1854.6%

The Texans locked up a trip to the playoffs in the regular season finale with a thrilling last-minute win over the Indianapolis Colts. Thanks to a misplaced pass from Gardner Minshew, Houston was able to hold on and will make their first postseason appearance in four seasons.

Texans' Playoff Schedule and Betting Odds

With Houston's dominating performance over Cleveland, the team will now head for Baltimore where the Ravens await. While the game against the Browns was viewed as a coin-flip matchup, sportsbooks have this one heavily in the Ravens' favor.

Here are the betting odds for the Texans vs. Ravens playoff game as of January 16, per DraftKings:

  • Texans/Browns Spread: Texans +9
  • Texans/Browns Moneyline: Houston +310, Baltimore -395
  • Texans/Browns Total: Over 44.5 (-118), Under 44.5 (-102)

The Texans have been underdogs by a touchdown or more just twice this season and have split those matchups when it comes to the spread. The game they didn't cover? Week 1 against the Ravens. Baltimore won the season opener 25-9 as 9.5-point favorites. 

I don't think we should read too much into the Week 1 matchup, as this Texans team has been much better since then. In general, Houston has the second-best cover rate among teams that have been underdogs in more than one game. The Texans have gone 7-3 (70%) against the spread as underdogs, only behind the Buccaneers at 9-3 (75%). 

Can the Texans Make the Playoffs?

Yes, the Texans made the playoffs thanks to their Week 18 win over the Indianapolis Colts. They improved their playoff seeding thanks to the Titans upsetting the Jaguars the next day, making Houston the AFC South champs.

Are the Texans Out of Playoffs?

No, Houston is not out of the playoffs. As long as the Texans win against the Colts, they will be in the playoffs. Lose, however, and their season is over.

Houston Texans Playoff Chances: Key Updates January 2024

To keep Texans fans updated on the season, here are the latest news and developments regarding the Houston Texans from the 2023 season:

  • πŸ“† January 13, 2024: The Texans demolish the Browns at home, 45-14.
  • πŸ“† January 7, 2024: Houston claims the AFC South title and the No. 4 seed in the playoffs with Tennessee's win over Jacksonville.
  • πŸ“† January 6, 2024: The Texans clinch a playoff berth thanks to their win over the Colts.
  • πŸ“† January 1, 2024: Houston can secure a playoff berth with a win over Indianapolis on Saturday.
  • πŸ“† December 31:  C.J. Stroud returns for Houston and the team picks up an important win over the Titans, 26-3.
  • πŸ“† December 26: Safety Jimmie Ward is placed on injured reserve.
  • πŸ“† December 24: The Texans drop an important game for the Wild Card race, losing to the Cleveland Browns.
  • πŸ“† December 19: It is already being reported that C.J. Stroud is unlikely to clear concussion protocol and is in jeopardy of missing Week 16.
  • πŸ“† December 10: Quarterback C.J. Stroud left the game to be evaluated for a concussion. He is in concussion protocol.
  • πŸ“† December 5: The Texans are set to sign veteran safety Adrian Amos.
  • πŸ“† December 4: The Texans announced wideout Tank Dell would miss the rest of the season after having surgery on his broken left leg.
  • πŸ“† November 29: Offensive lineman Tytus Howard was placed on injured reserve ending his season.
  • πŸ“† November 27: The Texans claimed former Eagles defensive end Derek Barnett. The Texans had almost no pressure last week against the Jaguars.

We will continue to update this page all season, so be sure to bookmark it and return to see all of the latest updates regarding the Houston Texans.

Key Contributors Toward Texans Playoff Chances

Quarterback C.J. Stroud has a chance to clear concussion protocol this week thanks to getting in a limited practice on Wednesday. His return would be a massive boost to the Texans' offense and places Houston a legitimate contender for one of the final Wild Card spots. Despite missing two games with a concussion, Stroud remains the heavy favorite for the Offensive Rookie of the Year at -1200 although the gap has closed with Rams' rookie receiver Puka Nacua. Stroud's RotY odds dropped from last week when they were listed at -1600 on DraftKings.

Nico Collins returned in Week 15 and will be a key piece moving forward with rookie Tank Dell done for the season. The Texans will look to wide receiver Noah Brown, who is enjoying a breakout-type season, to take some of the pressure off Collins and help Stroud and the passing game.

While the defense has been up and down all year, they've been good enough for the most part despite dealing with a multitude of injuries. Rookie Will Anderson returned in Week 17 in a big way, picking up two more sacks on the season. This was Anderson's second multi-sack performance in his last three games.

Where Can I Bet on the Houston Texans to Make the Playoffs?

You can bet on the Houston Texans to make the playoffs at any legal sportsbook. Options include DraftKings Sportsbook, BetMGM Sportsbook, Caesars Sportsbook, or FanDuel Sportsbook. Bets can also be made on the Texans to miss the playoffs, win the AFC South, and several other futures at other popular sportsbooks. 

It’s important to note that sports betting isn’t legalized yet in Texas. Bettors will need to travel out of state in order to place a legal sports bet on the Houston Texans' playoff chances during the 2023 season. Sports fans can also use social sportsbook sites like BetRivers.net which is a legal alternative because there is no real money involved. Here, you can place "bets" with virtual credits. BetRivers.net is a fantastic platform for those who have never placed a bet with a mobile site or app because the set up is exactly the same as you would find with a "real" operator, giving you practice for when Texas sports betting becomes a reality.

Houston Texans Playoff Picture and Predictions

The Texans' victory over the Browns in the opening round of the playoffs showcased what has been the driving force behind their success all season: rookie quarterback C.J. Stroud and rookie head coach DeMeco Ryans. Stroud made plays all game long and Ryans had the defense dialed in.

With Stroud playing beyond his years, this team will continue to have a chance. This will no doubt be their toughest matchup on both sides of the ball, however, as the Ravens are sitting atop the AFC Playoffs as the No. 1 seed for a reason. Baltimore has been one of the best teams all season long and have racked up impressive wins against other playoff teams, including dominating performances over the 49ers, Lions, and Dolphins.

I foresee the Texans putting up a fight but ultimately falling short against Baltimore, ending their playoff run.

Houston Texans Playoffs FAQs

Author

Cody Kutzer

Cody Kutzer has been covering the sports betting and gambling space for several years and has been losing his parlay bets for even longer. He currently serves as an editor and fact-checker for BetTexas.com to ensure readers have the latest and most accurate information surrounding what's happening in Texas sports betting.

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