When It Comes to College Football Futures, Biggest Misses Were in Texas

When It Comes to College Football Futures, Biggest Misses Were in Texas
Fact Checked by Michael Peters

It was a college football year to remember for TCU and one to forget for Texas A&M, and to a lesser extent Texas.

The Horned Frogs made it to the sport’s biggest stage, while the Aggies and Longhorns went from preseason championship contenders to afterthoughts in the blink of an eye.

TCU, under first-year head coach Sonny Dykes, emerged as a new-blood name to remember, thanks in large part to the outsized exploits of quarterback Max Duggan.

Texas and Texas A&M combined to go 13-12, despite being among the preseason leaders in championship odds.

There is no legal Texas sports betting.

There is already at least one sports betting bill before the Texas Legislature for its 2023 session.  

BetTexas.com wanted to contextualize how the state’s leading college football teams fared versus their preseason expectations in 2022.

Here’s what we found for Texas’ college football teams:

2022 Preseason Odds Vs. Final AP Poll

School Preseason Odds Preseason Rank by Odds Final AP Rank
Ohio State+30424
Texas A&M+25006NR
Notre Dame+4800T818
Oklahoma State+870016NR
Penn State+9100177

TCU Saw Stock Climb in 2022

The Horned Frogs had the largest climb among FBS teams this year, going from 42nd in preseason odds (at +23000) to 13-2 and in the CFP Final.

TCU became the first team from the state to qualify for the four-team playoff, while adding eight wins to its year-end total from a year ago.

It was a rosy year for the Horned Frogs, despite being routed by Georgia in Monday’s championship game.

Conversely, 2022 was a year to forget for the state’s other football powers, with the Longhorns sputtering out of the gate, erasing any shot at reaching the playoff after falling to Texas Tech, 37-34, in Week 4.

It’s worth noting all five of Texas’ losses this season came by seven points or less, including a one-point (20-19) defeat at the hands of Alabama in Austin during the second week of the season.

Down U.S. 290, the story wasn’t nearly as pretty in Year Five of the Jimbo Fisher era, as the Aggies dropped from 8-4 to 5-7, missing a bowl game for the first time since 2008.

Aggies Fall the Hardest

The Aggies were the biggest loser, as far as final record versus preseason hype, going from having the sixth-highest championship odds preseason (+2500) to a losing record.

The Longhorns saw their stock fall, though to a lesser extent than other in-state rivals, going from the 10th-best preseason odds (+5200) to a three-game improvement in wins from 2021.

Elsewhere in the state, Baylor went from having the 18th highest championship odds (+9700) to a 6-7 campaign that saw it fall to Air Force in the Armed Forces Bowl.

In Lubbock, the Red Raiders fared slightly better than their former SWC brethren, going from +41000 to win a championship (ranking 56th nationally) to an 8-5 campaign. Texas Tech had its highest year-end win total since going 8-5 in 2013 in Kliff Kingsbury’s first season.

Houston had the best odds of any non-Power Five school in Texas during the preseason, sitting 47th nationally at +27000. The Cougars wound up 8-5 as well, giving Dana Holgorsen a 20-7 record over the past two seasons with the program.

Finally, the Roadrunners of Texas-San Antonio soared this fall, going from +71000 to win a title preseason to an 11-3 campaign that saw them post an unblemished 8-0 record in their final season of Conference USA play.

2023 BetMGM Sportsbook Preseason Odds

Team Odds
Ohio State+600
Penn State+2000
Notre Dame+2000



Christopher Boan is a writer with BetTexas.com, covering state issues. He has covered sports and sports betting in Arizona for more than seven years, including stops at ArizonaSports.com, the Tucson Weekly and the Green Valley News.

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